دراسة تحليلية لواقع وتطور الإنفاق على الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في سورية خلال الفترة 2002-2022

Abstract

The research aimed to analyze the reality and development of the components of expenditure on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Syria during the period (2002-2022), with the objective of monitoring the acute structural shifts in the national economy and diagnosing the causes of imbalance in the relative weights of consumption, investment, and net foreign trade. The study adopted a descriptive-analytical approach to track the time series of macroeconomic variables, obtaining its data from official statistical abstracts issued by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). It utilized descriptive statistical tools, relative analysis, and comparative analysis of sectoral performance between the pre-2011 and post-2011 stages.

The study concluded that the Syrian economy has shifted radically toward an absolute consumption-based pattern, with final consumption expenditure exceeding the 100% threshold of GDP over the last decade. This indicates a severe productive gap covered by the depletion of savings and external remittances. The results also revealed a sharp decline in the contribution of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), which dropped from healthy growth levels to a critical rate of 4.47% in 2022, signaling the erosion of future productive capacity. Regarding foreign trade, the findings indicated that the trade balance has shifted into a chronic structural deficit, with the export-to-import coverage ratio falling to low levels below 24%, deepening economic exposure and import dependency. The research confirmed that the massive numerical increases in expenditure values between (2020-2022) do not reflect an improvement in actual performance; rather, they represent "nominal" growth driven by hyperinflation and the deterioration of the local currency's purchasing power. This necessitates the adoption of urgent policies to stimulate productive investment and rebalance the national expenditure structure.