محددات سعر سهم بنك سورية والمهجر 2009-2023: قراءة قياسية في ظل اقتصاد كلي مضطرب

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the determinants of the stock price of Bank of Syria and Overseas during the period from 2009 to 2023 in a turbulent economic environment, with particular focus on the role of market volatility in moderating the impact of fundamental financial determinants on stock returns. To achieve the study's objective, the Analogical method was used to analyze and measure the research variables represented by the independent variables: return on equity (ROE), total assets, share turnover rate, market volatility, in addition to interaction variables between financial fundamentals and volatility. The dependent variable (quarterly stock returns) was measured through price changes and dividend distributions. Quarterly data consisting of 63 observations were used, and the data were analyzed using multiple linear regression models with the application of robust standard errors (HC3). VIF and correlation tests were used to ensure the absence of multicollinearity, and three progressive regression models were tested in this study.

The study found that the full model including interactions is statistically significant with an explanatory power of 58.89%, and that there is a positive and significant effect of bank size (logarithm of total assets) and share turnover rate on stock returns. It also found a strong significant effect of the interaction between return on equity and market volatility, and of the interaction between share turnover rate and market volatility on stock returns, confirming that the impact of financial determinants depends on the level of market volatility.