دراسة تحليلية قياسية لأثر السياحة في الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في سورية خلال الفترة 2000-2022

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the relationship between tourism and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Syria during the period 2000–2022, with a focus on three independent variables: tourism expenditure, tourism investment, and tourism exports. The study adopted a descriptive-analytical approach in addition to an econometric methodology, utilizing annual data through the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results revealed that both tourism expenditure and investment had a positive and statistically significant impact on GDP in the short and long term. In contrast, tourism exports had a negative and significant effect, reflecting the limited domestic benefit from foreign tourism revenues. Furthermore, the study identified a long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables and emphasized the crucial role of political and security stability in stimulating tourism and enhancing its contribution to economic growth.