تحليل تطور مؤشرات الفاقد المائي وكفاءة استهلاك الفرد من مياه الشرب في سورية خلال الفترة 2002-2022

Abstract

The research aimed to diagnose water loss in Syria by analyzing the evolution of its components and linking its inflation to the stages of change in the level of stability. Furthermore, it sought to track the efficiency of individual consumption (the billed share per subscriber) and describe its service implications in light of this loss, and to compare the impact of structural deterioration and increasing loss with the impact of demographic shifts (change in the number of subscribers) on consumption efficiency, in order to provide practical recommendations for improving network efficiency.

The research adopted a descriptive-analytical methodology. This approach focused on the precise description of the evolution of the drinking water sector indicators (production, billed consumption, number of subscribers, and loss components) for the period 2002–2022, utilizing a time series sourced from statistical collections issued by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) in Syria. Descriptive statistical tools were used to analyze the data, including calculating trend determination, and relative analysis to measure loss rates and consumption efficiency, in addition to comparative analysis of the sector's performance between the pre-2011 and post-2011 stages.

The research findings showed that drinking water production in Syria reached its highest levels before 2011, followed by a sharp collapse phase in 2012 due to infrastructure damage, and then a partial recovery stabilizing at a much lower level. This coincided with a sharp decline in paid consumption and the number of subscribers due to displacement and billing difficulties. Network wastage (technical loss), however, was the main driver of deterioration, reaching its absolute peak after 2011, exceeding half of the total production, confirming the inflation of leakages and lack of maintenance. Consequently, the water loss percentage swelled and stabilized at dangerously high levels, turning water wastage into a chronic structural challenge. Finally, the average billed consumption share per subscriber plummeted by nearly half and remained stable at a very low level, confirming the ongoing crisis of actual water availability for the consumer.