دراسة تحليلية لهيكل الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في سورية خلال الفترة2000-2021

Abstract

The research primarily aimed to describe and identify the structural distortions that occurred in the Syrian economy during the period 2000–2021, by analyzing the chronological evolution of Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the contribution of its main sectors. To achieve this, the study adopted a descriptive-analytical approach, applying analytical tools to identify the most affected (contracting) sectors and those that showed relative resilience after 2011. This also involved assessing the shift in economic weight from commodity (goods-producing) sectors to service sectors. The most prominent methodological tool focused on calculating the GDP Deflator, which was used as a primary indicator to measure implicit inflation, allowing for a precise separation between nominal and inflationary growth, and consequently, concluding and describing the structural distortions that necessitate recommendations for remediation and supporting stability.

The research arrived at several key findings, the most important of which are: Prior to 2011, the Syrian economy experienced sustainable real growth led by the commodity sectors (industry and agriculture), which formed the backbone of the GDP, alongside relatively contained inflation. However, the post-2011 phase was characterized by a sharp and dual collapse: a catastrophic real collapse in the value added of the productive and financial sectors due to destruction and halted investment, accompanied by massive monetary inflation that pushed prices to unprecedented levels, creating a large gap between nominal and real growth. This collapse led to deep structural distortion, with productive sectors fundamentally losing their leadership role. Conversely, government services, transport, and trade sectors gained coercive structural weight, reflecting an inflation in the state's role, relief activities, and less elastic essential services. The real value of the GDP remained significantly lower than its benchmark levels, confirming the difficulty of recovery under the dominance of non-productive sectors.