تحليل التغيرات الهيكلية في أثر التجارة الخارجية في النمو الاقتصادي لسورية خلال الفترة 1976-2022

Abstract

This study aims to analyze how foreign trade has affected economic growth in Syria over the period 1976–2022 in a nonlinear way. The research uses annual data on real gross domestic product, exports, and imports. It first estimates a linear model and then applies threshold regression to capture structural changes in the impact of trade. The Bai Perron methodology is used to identify multiple thresholds in exports and imports, and the models are estimated with heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent errors. The results show that the relationship between exports and growth is not stable over time. The effect of exports on growth changes sign across regimes that correspond to different levels of trade openness and to major economic and political shocks. Imports also display regime dependent effects. They support growth in periods where they finance capital goods and production inputs, while they become a burden when they are dominated by consumer goods and reflect external dependence. The threshold models provide a better fit and higher explanatory power than linear specifications and offer a more accurate description of the role of foreign trade in Syrian growth dynamics.