تأثير سياسة الحماية الجمركية على العجز التجاري الأمريكي مع الصين خلال الفترة 2011/2024 (دراسة مقارنة)

Abstract

This study aims to elucidate the structural and persistent trade deficit of the United States with China during the period of bilateral economic integration that prevailed until the end of 2017, as well as throughout the subsequent trade war initiated by the United States in mid-2018, which remains ongoing to the present. The research adopts acomparative analytical approach to evaluate the impact of the U.S. tariff protection policy on the trade deficit by examining the evolution of applied tariff rates and assessing their transmission effects on both the goods trade balance and the services trade balance.

The study distinguishes between two analytical periods:

1. The integration phase (2011–2017): A period marked by relatively moderate tariff levels, which facilitated the expansion of bilateral trade flows but concurrently resulted in a sustained U.S. trade deficit.
2. The trade war phase (2018–2024): A period characterized by the United States’ adoption of a tariff protection policy that imposed significant constraints on trade openness, including the application of tariff rates reaching 25% on imports originating from China.

The study concludes that:

1. The U.S. tariff protection policy contributed to thereduction of the goods trade deficitwith China, effectively restoring it to levels comparable to those observed prior to the onset of the trade war.
2. However, this policy did not generate a commensurate increase in the U.S. services trade surplus, which remained relatively stable over the fourteen-year study horizon.