دراسة تحليلية لتطور التجارة الزراعية البينية بين سورية والدول العربية خلال الفترة 2002-2021

Abstract

The research aimed to assess the structural impact of post-2011 conditions on the Syrian agricultural sector and its trade relationship with Arab countries during the 2002-2021 period. The study employed a quantitative descriptive approach to analyze and track the inter-Arab agricultural trade between Syria and the Arab countries during the specified period. This was achieved by monitoring and comparing trade performance using three main indicators: the evolution of exports and imports (in nominal values converted to Syrian Pounds), the inter-Arab agricultural trade balance, and the economic exposure index for inter-Arab agriculture, which helped determine the structural turning point and the degree of economic dependency.

The results of the analysis revealed a radical structural transformation in Syrian inter-Arab agricultural trade after 2013. While Syria was a net food exporter during 2002–2013, with the export-to-import coverage ratio exceeding 650%, the collapse of production and the devaluation of the exchange rate led to its transformation into a net importer. The nominal value of imports surged significantly, becoming the dominant component of trade, surpassing 63% of the total in the years following 2011. This resulted in a resounding collapse of the trade balance, turning it into a record deficit, and a deterioration of the coverage ratio to about 52% in 2020, confirming the loss of competitiveness. The economic exposure index also revealed an erosion of self-sufficiency and an increase in forced dependency on Arab markets, with the ratio of exports to agricultural GDP falling to its lowest level (3.18% in 2019) and imports ratio rising steadily, making the Syrian agricultural sector highly sensitive to regional shocks and fluctuations.