دراسة أثر الاستثمار الصناعي في الصادرات السورية خلال الفترة 2000 – 2022

Abstract

The study aims to clarify whether Syrian exports are affected by the fluctuations in investment and industrial production witnessed by the Syrian economy from 2000 to 2022, taking into cosideration that exports cannot grow without an investment base capable of creating a competitive product, primarily in accordance with the requirements of the investment environment and market openness. In order to achieve the objective of the study,  the researcher conducted a descriptive analysis to analyze the relationship between the variables  in the Syrian economy. The researcher then used Eviews13 software to generate a standard model among them, based on the VECM error correction model.

The VECM error correction model has proven the existence of a significant long-term relationship among the variables, with capital formation having a negative significant effect on exports and industrial production having a positive significant effect on exports. The model takes about 1.26 years, so when an imbalance occurs in exports, they adjust themselves within a year and three months. Furthermore, a shock to both capital formation and industrial production will have an impact on exports.