تحليل فجوة الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في سوريا، ودراسة أثرها في التضخم خلال الفترة (1990-2020)

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the output gap in order to determine whether the economy was operating at its full productive capacity during the period from 1990 to 2020. In addition, it examined the long- and short-run effects of the output gap on inflation. Given that the study period encompassed the Syrian revolution, it was incorporated into the model as a dummy variable.

To achieve the study’s objective of analyzing the output gap—defined as the difference between actual and potential GDP—the Hodrick-Prescott filter was employed to estimate potential GDP. The ARDL methodology was applied to assess the long- and short-run effects of the output gap on inflation. The results indicated that the Syrian economy did not operate at full capacity during the study period, as reflected by the presence of both negative and positive gaps. Furthermore, the findings revealed no significant long-run effect of the output gap on inflation; consequently, its short-run effect could not be verified. Regarding the impact of the Syrian revolution, the results also indicated no significant effect.