دراسة قياسية لمحددات انتشار شركات التأمين في سورية وفق منهجية الانحدار الذاتي للإبطاءات الموزعة PMG-ARDLخلال الفترة الزمنية 2008-2022

Abstract

The study aims to examine the determinants of insurance companies’ penetration in Syria during the period 2008-2022; by interpreting them and estimating their impact in the short and long term on the penetration of insurance represented by (insurance premiums - company size - liquidity) as independent variables with the inclusion of the gross domestic product as a control variable.

The study used panel analysis to estimate the determinants of the spread of Syrian insurance companies, by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for panel data, where the long- and short-term results were estimated and interpreted using the PMG estimators in the ARDL model environment as the appropriate method, because it is characterized by consistency and efficiency compared to the ARDL estimators, and to ensure reaching accurate and reliable results to a certain extent.

The study was applied to /13/ public and private insurance companies in the Syrian Arab Republic. The results of the econometric study showed: The insurance sector's contribution to GDP is weak due to the slow development of the insurance market in Syria. In addition, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between liquidity and insurance penetration,

It plays a pivotal role in increasing insurance penetration, and there is a long-term negative equilibrium relationship between company size and insurance penetration. In addition, there is a short-term relationship between the selected independent variables and the insurance penetration rate.