دراسة تحليلية لأثر الفجوة بين الدخل والاتفاق على دخل الأسرة السورية خلال الفترة 2000-2022

Abstract

The research aimed to estimate the gap between income and expenditure in Syria during the period 2000-2022, by relying on a scientific approach based on the idea of ​​long-term balance between income (Gross Domestic Product (GDP)) and expenditure (total government and household spending), and then testing its impact on the income of the Syrian family.

The research relied on a quantitative analytical methodology that aims to estimate the impact of the gap between income and expenditure on Syrian household income during the period 2000-2022. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data was used as an indicator of income, while government and household expenditure were used to represent expenditure. To estimate the relationship between the two variables in the long run, the Error Correction Model (ECM) was used, where the difference between income and expenditure is expressed as a measure of the gap. Time series stationarity tests were also used using the ADF-Fisher test, and the Granger causality test to determine the causal relationship between the two variables. The data were analyzed using Eviews. 12, which enabled estimating the short- and long-term effects of the gap on household income in Syria.

The research results showed that the gap between income and expenditure continues to negatively affect the income of Syrian families during the period 2000-2022, as the widening gap reduces the purchasing power and real income of families. The results of the error correction model showed a long-term relationship between income and expenditure, which means that any imbalance between income and expenditure is gradually corrected over time, but at a relatively slow rate of correction.