أثر الائتمان المصرفي الممنوح من المصارف المتخصصة على الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في سورية دراسـة قياسـية باستخدام نموذج ARDEL

Abstract

The aim of the research was to study the impact of the size of credit facilities granted by specialized banks on the gross domestic product in Syria during the period 2000-2022.

This research was based on a quantitative methodology to analyze the relationship between credit facilities provided by specialized banks and GDP in Syria during the period from 2000 to 2022. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was relied upon to analyze secondary data derived from official sources, such as the Central Bureau of Statistics and the Central Bank of Syria. The statistical procedures included a descriptive analysis of the data to test its stability, estimating the ARDL model to determine the nature of the relationship between the variables, and evaluating the suitability of the model.

The research results showed that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between the size of credit facilities granted by specialized banks and the GDP in the long term, as increasing credit facilities by 1% leads to an increase in the GDP by 1.38%, taking into account that this relationship weakens with the rise in inflation and interest rates.