أثر الاستثمار في التعليم على التغيرات في متوسط دخل الفرد في سورية خلال المدَّة 2000-2023
Keywords:
Investment in Education, Education Expenditure, Per Capita Income, Economic Growth, Time Series.Abstract
The research aimed to estimate and analyze the impact of investment in education, represented by public expenditure on education, on per capita income in Syria during the period 2000–2023. The study employed a descriptive-analytical (econometric) time series methodology, utilizing structured annual data sourced from the World Bank. The process began with analyzing the stationarity properties of the two variables using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, followed by the Engle-Granger cointegration test to determine the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship. Upon confirming cointegration, the long-run relationship was efficiently estimated using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) model, while the Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to estimate the short-run dynamics and determine the efficiency and adjustment mechanism by which income returns to its long-run equilibrium following a disequilibrium shock. Furthermore, the study focused on analyzing the significance of the nominal growth recorded in expenditure and income in the post-2011 period and interpreting these results in light of hyperinflation and its effect on the real value of educational investment and the standard of living.
The results showed significant heterogeneity in the data for both educational expenditure and per capita income, with the post-2011 period demonstrating a sharp decline in public spending on education and an exponential, inflationary growth in both variables during recent years. Econometric tests confirmed that the two variables are integrated of order one (I(1)) and are bound by a strong and significant long-run equilibrium relationship. The DOLS method specifically confirmed that investment in education contributes positively and sustainably to raising per capita income (with a coefficient of 0.458). Although the ECM model confirmed the existence of a rapid adjustment mechanism toward equilibrium, it showed the absence of any significant short-run effect of public expenditure on education on income.
