أثر الإنفاق على التعليم في النمو الاقتصادي في سورية دراسة تطبيقية خلال المدَّة 2000-2023

Abstract

The research aimed to estimate and analyze the aggregate impact of education expenditure on economic growth in Syria during the period (2000-2023). This objective is achieved through four main axes: determining the nature of the relationship between the two variables in the long and short run, measuring the extent of cointegration and a stable equilibrium relationship between them, determining the efficiency of the adjustment mechanism by which economic growth returns to long-run equilibrium when any disequilibrium occurs, and finally, assessing the real priority given to the education sector in light of the economic crisis and the shocks the country has undergone.

The research adopted a descriptive analytical and quantitative (econometric) methodology, starting by describing the variables and evaluating their statistical properties. Then, the quantitative approach was applied through the ARDL/ECM model, which allowed for estimating the long-run relationship between education expenditure and economic growth and determining the dynamics of adjustment towards equilibrium, while ensuring the model's reliability with comprehensive diagnostic tests.

The results of the research showed that the Syrian economy went through a sharp contraction after a period of stable growth, and that severe shocks led to a significant deterioration in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a sharp decline in education expenditure, with indicators suggesting a decrease in the real priority of the education sector compared to massive inflation. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology proved the existence of a stable, long-run equilibrium relationship between education expenditure and economic growth, confirming the positive and significant impact of education expenditure in supporting sustainable growth. The Error Correction Model (ECM) also showed a high strength in the adjustment dynamics, where the largest part of short-run disequilibria is corrected towards equilibrium within a single time period. The results also confirmed that the real driving force of education on the economy is concentrated in the long run, while the effect of immediate changes in education expenditure remains limited and insignificant in the short run, with the validity and reliability of the model confirmed through diagnostic and stability tests.