خصائص الهطولات السنوية والفصلية واتجاهاتها في محافظة الحسكة للمدَّة (1958/59- 2023/24) دراسة تحليلية في ظل التغير المناخي

Abstract

Al-Hasakah is the center of the Syrian Al-Jazira region, an area of vital agricultural importance in Syria. Precipitation is critical for water resources and agriculture, necessitating enhanced monitoring and assessment in the context of climate change. This study aimed to analyze precipitation characteristics and their temporal variations during 1958/59–2023/24. Annual and seasonal precipitation were characterized. The Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze precipitation time series trends, and Sen’s slope method was used to determine the rate and significance of temporal changes.

Results from annual precipitation time series analysis revealed a clear decreasing trend in precipitation rates, reflecting a climate shift toward drier hydrological conditions.
Seasonally, autumn precipitation showed high variability without a consistent pattern, though its rate of change was statistically insignificant. However, its 36% decline poses a threat to rainfed agriculture. Winter precipitation decreased by 16%, adversely affecting groundwater recharge.

The study also indicated that spring was the season most impacted by climate change, reflected in increased irrigation demand and strains on water resources during this season.

Comparing two time periods (1958/59–1990/91 and 1991/92–2023/24), clear indicators of climate change emerged. Most notably, the annual precipitation decline in the latter period was statistically significant, signaling a climatic shift beyond natural variability. Spring precipitation exhibited a statistically significant decline between periods, while other seasonal changes lacked statistical significance. Spring's average precipitation decreased by 17% in the second period, impacting agriculture and irrigation, and was linked to shifts in atmospheric systems and delayed arrival of Mediterranean low-pressure systems.

Results demonstrate a transition toward a drier climate in the study area, aligning with prior studies on climatic changes and precipitation patterns in the eastern Mediterranean. Agricultural policies in the study area should prioritize low-water-consumption crops, and proactive plans should be developed to enhance irrigation efficiency to mitigate drought and climate change impacts.