التقييم المالي والاقتصادي لمشاريع السكك الحديدية باستخدام بيانات طريقة التنبؤ بالمجموعة المرجعية

Abstract

This study aims to develop a practical methodology for applying Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) in financial and economic appraisal of railway projects. This methodology expands the scope of RCF data to include investment costs, operation and maintenance costs, revenues, and socio-economic benefits, in addition to providing a systematic framework for sensitivity analysis based on actual reference data rather than traditional estimated ratios. The study used reference data issued by the UK Department for Transport as a practical model, given the absence of reliable local databases. The methodology was tested on a railway project in Syria. The results demonstrated how the proposed methodology can be used practically in Syria to improve the accuracy of estimates and provide a more realistic basis for supporting investment decisions in unstable environments. The study recommends the need to develop local reference classes in the future, which would enhance the compatibility of this methodology with the economic specificities of developing countries. The study also highlights the need to develop complementary tools that take into account the risks inherent in the Syrian context, such as exchange rate volatility and resource shortages, to mitigate the impact of these risks on economic feasibility results.