دور كثافة الأشجار والمساحة الكلية وسعر السوق في تحديد عوائد قطاع الحمضيات بمحافظة اللاذقية خلال الفترة (2000–2023)

Abstract

The research aimed to study the development of three key indicators of the citrus sector in Lattakia Governorate (cultivated area, tree density, and market price) during the period 2000–2023, and to analyze the impact of their integration on farmers' economic returns.

A descriptive analytical approach was adopted to collect secondary data from the Directorate of Agriculture and the Directorate of Internal Trade. Multiple linear regression, ANOVA, and the Durbin–Watson coefficient were then applied to control for autocorrelation.

The results showed that the average area was 25,617 hectares, the average number of trees was 7,605,000, and the average price was 141.8 SYP/kg.

Conversely, the regression model showed that market price was the most prominent factor in explaining revenues (β = 0.789), significance (sig=0.000), followed by tree density (β = 0.709), significance = 0.036), while area had a slight negative effect (β = –0.498), significance = 0.04. Overall, the model explained 91.1% of the revenue variance (R²=0.911), underscoring the importance of combining accurate pricing strategies with productivity optimization to ensure sustainable returns.