التنبؤ بالتوسع العمراني وأثره على مساحة الأراضي الزراعية في محافظة اللاذقية باستخدام نماذج (ARMA)

Abstract

The research aimed to study the development of the urban area and the agricultural area in Lattakia Governorate during the period (1995-2022), and to predict the size of urban expansion on agricultural lands in the governorate during the period (2023-2030).

This research adopted a descriptive analytical approach to study and estimate the general trends of the research variables during the studied period.

          Also it adopted the (Box-Jenins) methodology in estimating the Autoregressive integrated moving average models and selecting the best model for predicting urban expansion by analyzing the time series of the areas. Urban data from the annual agricultural statistical collections were analyzed using the Eviews 13 program.

The results of the research showed a decrease in the area of agricultural lands by 252.65 hectares during the period from 1995 to 2022, alongside an increase in the urban area of 3629.08 hectares. It was also found that there is a statistically significant effect of urban expansion on the agricultural land area, and that an increase in the urban area by one hectare leads to a decrease in the agricultural area by 0.67 hectares

The results of estimating the (ARMA) model for predicting urban expansion in the governorate showed that the model (1.0) gives the best predictions, and the results of predicting urban expansion during the period (2023-2030) showed a general increasing trend of 551.25 hectares, at a rate of 0.24% annually.